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Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Ignore the Polling on Who Should Replace Ginsburg

Not even 24 hours after Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, multiple media outlets were telling us that on the question of who they prefer to replace Ginsburg on the U.S. Supreme Court, voters prefer Joe Biden to President Trump.

The Fox News headline Saturday afternoon declared that “52% trust Biden over Trump on Supreme Court picks.” The Fox News question on the Supreme Court was included in its regular Trump-Pence vs. Biden-Harris poll and was conducted days prior to Ginsburg’s death. The Fox poll gave Biden a 52%-45% edge on who people trust “to do a better job on…SCOTUS nominations.”

On early Saturday afternoon, a New York Times headline read, “Polls Have Shown Voters Prefer Biden to Pick Next Justice.” The Times article reported on the Fox poll and also reported on its own New York Times/Siena College three-state poll. The Times article states, “In Times/Siena polls of Maine, North Carolina and Arizona released Friday, voters preferred Mr. Biden to select the next Supreme Court justice by 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent.”

A Saturday headline at The Hill read, “Majority of voters say Trump should not nominate a Supreme Court justice.” This article reports on “a snap poll released Saturday by YouGov.” According to The Hill,

The poll found that 51 percent of voters believe Trump should not nominate another justice this year, while 42 percent said he should move forward with a nominee. A slight majority, 48 percent, believe the Senate should not confirm a nominee this year. Forty-five percent said the upper chamber should.

Of course, all of this is meant to discourage President Trump, Senate Republicans, and their supporters from moving forward with a nomination to replace Ginsburg prior to the November elections. In other words, these polls are like most every other election-related poll in this modern drive-by media era. They are meant to shape opinions instead of merely reporting on them. Events in 2016 again provide an informative lesson here.

After the death of Antonin Scalia in February of 2016, the media put tremendous pressure on the Republican-led U.S. Senate to give Obama nominee Merrick Garland a Senate hearing and a vote. Part of this pressure included numerous polls that supposedly showed Americans were overwhelmingly in favor of Garland receiving a Senate hearing and a vote. Polling Report reveals this to be the case.

Just days after Scalia’s death, Pew Research Center asked, “In thinking about how the Senate should deal with the Supreme Court vacancy, which of the following statements comes closer to your view? Do you think the Senate should hold hearings and vote on whomever President Obama nominates, or not hold hearings until the next president selects a nominee?” Pew reported that “Hold hearings on Obama’s nominee” got 56% support while “Wait for the next president” got only 38% support.

In late February of 2016, a CNN/ORC poll asked, “President Obama has said that he will nominate someone to fill the vacancy. Do you think the Republican leadership in the Senate should or should not hold hearings on the nominee?” According to this poll, “should” hold hearings was at 66% while “should not” was at 32%.

Likewise, in early March of 2016, an ABC News/Washington Post poll asked, “The death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has opened a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court. After Obama nominates someone to replace Scalia, do you think the Senate should hold hearings and vote on whether to accept the nomination, or should the Senate NOT hold hearings, which would block the nomination and leave it to the next president?” Again, support for holding hearings was supposedly at 63% while those against holding hearings came in at only 32%.

Similarly, in the middle of March in 2016, Gallup asked, “Now turning to the U.S. Supreme Court, as you may know, Merrick Garland is a federal judge who has been nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Garland serving on the Supreme Court, or not?” According to Gallup, those wanting the Senate to vote “in favor” was 52%, while those wanting the Senate to “not vote in favor” was at 29%.

And so on it went for the weeks and months leading up to the 2016 elections. What’s more, liberal pundits across the U.S. ran hundreds of editorials calling for Mitch McConnell to allow hearings and a vote on Garland. Even individual GOP Senators—including Susan Collins—called for the Senate to grant Garland Judiciary Committee hearings.

Of course, refusing to acquiesce on Garland hearings was supposed to cost republicans in the 2016 elections. No less than a former executive editor of The New York Times thought so. Writing in The Guardian, Jill Abramson called Garland’s nomination a “political gift” for Hillary Clinton and added that “Garland’s temperate record and demeanor also magnify the extremism of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the leaders for the GOP presidential nomination who could make their own court nominees if Garland is not confirmed by the election. That could further scare off moderate Republicans.”

Of course, after holding up Garland’s nomination in 2016, Donald Trump became the U.S. President, the republicans held on to the U.S. Senate, and even gained two seats in the 2018 midterms. There’s nothing in politics—or, more importantly, in the U.S. Constitution—that says republicans can’t or shouldn’t replace Ginsburg prior to this November. Don’t let the drive-by media lead you into thinking otherwise.

Additionally, any threats of violence, mayhem, and destruction, or any acts of violence, mayhem, and destruction that result from Trump and Senate Republicans acting to replace Ginsburg will not be the fault of the President and the GOP. Like the rest of the violence and mayhem currently plaguing the U.S., the blame will lie squarely on Democrats and their voters. And remember, it was Democrats who turned the courts into “super legislatures” in order to achieve what they otherwise could not get through actually winning elections and passing legislation. If the courts were what our Founders intended, these battles to replace Supreme Court Justices would not be so contentious.

(See this column at American Thinker.)

Copyright 2020, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith and Reason.
www.TrevorGrantThomas.com 
Trevor is the author of The Miracle and Magnificence of America
tthomas@TrevorGrantThomas.com

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Ignore the Battleground Polls As Well

It seems that President Trump is trailing in the polls again. In other “shocking” news, it seems that only women menstruate; “green energy” is a massive scam; Trump-Russia collusion was a massive hoax; media leftists hate America; and on everything from masks, to guns, to lives that matter, liberals are hypocrites. As I noted back in January of this year, Americans—especially Trump supporters—should pay little to no attention to the national polls on the 2020 U.S. Presidential election.

Again, such polls are usually not designed to inform us—as they should—but rather to form public opinion. This is true of the polls in the so-called “battleground” states as well. Again, 2016 provides the valuable lesson here.

People define battleground states differently. For purposes of this piece, I’ll define a “battleground state” as a state that was won—by either Trump or Hillary—in 2016 by less than 5 percentage points. There were eleven such states in 2016. Six were won by President Trump (margin of victory in the parentheses): North Carolina (3.66%), Arizona (3.55%), Florida (1.20%), Wisconsin (0.77%), Pennsylvania (0.72%), and Michigan (.23%). Five were won by Hillary: Colorado (4.91%), Maine (2.96%), Nevada (2.42%), Minnesota (1.52 %), and New Hampshire (0.37%).

Going into the 2016 election, according to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in seven out of 11 battleground states (Hillary’s RCP polling average lead in parentheses): WI (6.5%), PA (2.1%), MI (3.6%), CO (3.0%), ME (5.5%), MN (6.3%), and NH (0.3%). In other words, Donald Trump won three of the battleground states—WI, PA, and MI—where he (supposedly) trailed significantly in polls done just days prior to the election. Additionally, whether he won the state or not, Trump outperformed the RCP polling average in seven out of 11 battleground states. He did so by an average margin of 3.5 %.

However, since the RCP average is typically only the handful of polls just prior to the election—which are often, and “amazingly!” (hear my sarcasm) more accurate—it is more informative to examine the polls months prior to the election. After all, these are the ones that are used in the nefarious attempts to shape public opinion. Let’s look at the battleground polls that were done almost exactly four years ago, in July and August of 2016.

In the July-August polls reported by RCP, Hillary had a polling average lead in all but one (AZ) of the 11 battleground states. The numbers in parentheses are her average lead at the time: NC (2.2%), FL (1.9%), WI (6.8%), PA (6.1%), MI (6.9 %), CO (8.6%), ME (only a single poll: 10%), NV (0.8%), MN (RCP reports only seven polls in 2016. The average Hillary lead: 7.0%.), and NH (9.3%). In the final 2016 election result, Trump outperformed every one of these polling averages except one (NV). He did so by an average of 6.2%.

According to the RCP polling, currently, Joe Biden leads President Trump in every battleground state poll average (Biden’s lead in parentheses): NC (2.0%), AZ (2.8%), FL (7.0%), WI (6.0%), PA (7.3%), MI (8.0%), CO (only a single poll: 10.0%), ME (10.3%), NV (4.0%), MN (11.4%), and NH (4.3%). Note how similar these results are to the 2016 numbers.

It is also worth noting that today’s media is much more afraid of a second term for President Trump than they were of a potential first term for then candidate Donald Trump. This is why, along with their polling games, we had to endure years of a Trump-Russia-collusion hoax, are bombarded daily with Wuhan virus case counts—which are about as meaningless as the presidential polls—told that we must remain in some form of shutdown mode, and are nightly exposed to scenes of riots and destruction.

Democrats in 2016 thought Donald Trump was a joke and Hillary was a shoo-in. Having seen what he’s capable of accomplishing, even in the face of unprecedented opposition, democrats in 2020 are terrified of giving Donald Trump four more years. Thus, the portrayal of near-constant chaos across America.

In other words, all in the name of getting rid of President Trump, Democrats and their like-minded allies in the media are invested in the continued suffering of Americans. As Tucker Carlson recently put it,

Democrats understand that the unhappier Americans become, the more likely they are to win. Unhappy people want change. It is not complicated. So, every ominous headline about the state of the country makes it more likely that Donald Trump will lose his job. The more that people suffer, the greater Joe Biden’s advantage. Democrats have a strong incentive, therefore, to inflict as much pain as they can, and that’s what they are doing.

Instead of laying the blame where it belongs—the Chinese own the Wuhan virus; democrats own the violent, crime-ridden, riotous cities; the media and the democrats own the Trump-Russia-collusion hoax—the media continuously points their crooked finger at President Trump and constantly attempts to blame him and his administration for virtually all that they perceive is wrong in America. Whether true or not, the polls—whether national or state—are meant to sell the notion that most of the voting public is buying what the leftist media is selling.

And so what if the polls are wrong now? What have the drive-by media to lose? If Biden wins, they will have succeeded. If Trump wins, they can tell themselves, “At least we tried.” Their polls months out from the election in 2020 look no worse than they did in 2016, and however the election turns out, the drive-bys—seemingly never undeterred by failed wrong-doings—will move on to their next evil assignment.

Last, if, like me, you’re a Trump supporter, let none of this discourage you. In fact, let it motivate you, as it does me. I’ve never been more enthusiastic about voting for Trump as President of the United States. In 2016, my vote for Trump was more of a vote against Hillary. That’s not the case this year. And every bogus poll, every media lie, every ignorant mask mandate (take note, corporate America), every business closed, every park closed, every school shut down, every statue torn down, every conservative cancelled, every knee bowed at our National Anthem, every hateful, violent act toward our police, and all other such garbage, only further motivates me to cast my ballot for Donald J. Trump!

(See this piece at American Thinker.)

Copyright 2020, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.
www.trevorgrantthomas.com
Trevor is the author of the The Miracle and Magnificence of America
tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com


Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Remember: Pay Little to No Attention to Current National General Election Presidential Polls

According to Real Clear Politics, in spite of the economy and everything else going well in the United States of America, almost every current national poll has President Trump trailing a hypothetical Democrat opponent. Whether Biden, Sanders, Warren, or even Buttigieg, Bloomberg, or Klobuchar, President Trump trails them all in nearly every poll. As of this writing, the latest general election national poll by CNN, IBD/TIPP, Emerson, Fox News, Quinnipiac, and SurveyUSA has President Trump behind almost every possible Democrat candidate.

In 32 different matchups from the six polling agencies previously mentioned, President Trump leads in only two scenarios. Again, as of this writing, the latest IBD/TIPP national poll has Trump beating Warren 47% to 46% and the latest Emerson poll has Trump beating Buttigieg 51% to 49%. According to these polls, even democrats who have since dropped out of the race were beating President Trump.

The latest SurveyUSA national poll (at the end of November, 2019) had Kamala Harris beating the current President of the United States 47% to 42%. At the point Harris dropped out of the race, the Real Clear Politics average had her at plus six over President Trump. Out of 42 polls reported by Real Clear Politics—from June of 2018 until November of 2019—Trump topped Harris only six times. Again, remember that this is a candidate who couldn’t even outlast Julián Castro and Marianne Williamson.

Of course, the lesson here is the 2016 Presidential election. At this point in the 2016 Presidential election, up until Election Day on November 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the vast majority of polls taken. By my count (using a spreadsheet), as reported by Real Clear Politics (RCP), there were 221 polls taken in 2016 that polled Clinton vs. Trump for U.S. President. Donald Trump led in only 26 polls. Twenty-six out of 221. That’s over 88% of the polls that showed Clinton beating Trump.

Often, the race between Clinton and Trump was shown as a complete blowout in favor of Hillary. From January of 2016 through April of 2016, there were a dozen polls that showed Hillary up by double digits. A March 2016 Bloomberg poll had Hillary up by 18 points!

Similarly, at this point in 2016, until Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race, virtually every poll had him leading Donald Trump. From January of 2016 until June of 2016 when Bernie dropped out, RCP reported 28 polls on Sanders vs. Trump. Of those 28 polls, Trump polled ahead of Bernie only once. At the time the polling ended (when Bernie dropped out of the race), the RCP average had Sanders topping Trump by over 10 points!

Again, the race between Trump and Bernie was often shown to be a YUUUGE blowout in favor of Bernie. Of those 28 RCP polls, 22 of them had Bernie on top by double digits. Twelve polls had Bernie up by 15 points or more. The same Bloomberg poll that had Hillary topping Trump by 18 points showed Bernie beating Trump by 24 points!

When it comes to polling, Rush Limbaugh was and is exactly right. As he noted near election time in 2016,
Don’t forget, there is an undeniable truth in politics, and it is this: Polling data is used to shape public opinion. Polling data… Whether it’s presidential races or anything else, if it’s a poll, it is being used to make news. Polling has become the mechanism by which the media can write their own stories, can set their own agenda, and make it look like they’ve got nothing to do with it. The polls have these reputations of independent, nonpartisan, bipartisan, uninterested in the outcome… 
And I want…to remind you again that all of these polls are being used to suppress support for Trump. They are being used to encourage people to abandon Trump. They’re being used to encourage Trump to abandon his campaign. Their purpose is to dispirit and depress everyone and convince as many people as possible that it’s over, that Trump is a buffoon and has no chance whatsoever, all of it’s a waste of time, they might as well concede now and you might as well concede now. That’s the purpose of it.
I’ve long realized well—as no-doubt now do many other Americans—that national polling and the results of the Electoral College are two different things. However, it is interesting to note that, along with all of the other polling nonsense in 2016, about two weeks out from the election, a Reuters/Ipsos “states poll” showed that “the most likely outcome” electorally speaking was “326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.” This “commanding lead” gave Hillary a “better than 95 percent chance of winning.” It was a 99% chance of Hillary winning if one wanted to believe Princeton scientists (who used state polls to arrive at their number).

As we all now know, the “commanding lead” for Hillary turned into a 306 to 232 (304 to 227 due to “faithless electors”) electoral victory for Donald Trump. And the dismay at the loss of their 95% hopes quickly set in for democrats, as did the move to undo the results of the 2016 election.

I would only trust the polls that are two weeks or less out from the election. As Rush put it, “Those are the ones you really look at, because they are the polls their reputations will be staked to, and every polling unit at the end of a campaign wants to be trusted and reliable, they want to be shown to be right.” Whether or not one can trust the polling agencies, one certainly cannot trust the media who reports on them.

After Trump’s 2016 victory, one would think that the polling organizations and the media would’ve learned their lesson. Yet, less than a year after the 2016 election, an analysis by The Daily Caller News Foundation Investigative Group revealed that pollsters were back “churning out biased and misleading poll numbers.”

The Daily Caller reported,
“I do know inherently there is a Democratic bias in the polls. And most of them will deny it” says Raghavan Mayur, an independent pollster who is president of TechnoMetrica, which leads the polling operations at Investor’s Business Daily… 
Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell agreed with Mayur, saying “there was a couple of days of shock. And then they moved on because what they could not do is to get to the bottom of their own polling bias.” … 
When polling the public, most mainstream firms “overloaded for Democrats, underloaded for Republicans and conservatives,” said Francis Coombs, managing editor of Rasmussen Reports. 
John Zogby, another independent pollster, also told TheDCNF he sees significant Democratic polling bias. 
“I am a liberal Democrat, but I always felt that other polls oversampled Democrats and undersampled Republicans,” he said.
“Democratic” bias in the polls coupled with an overwhelming liberal bias in the media means that one should certainly pay little to no attention to most every poll between now and mid-October, and absolutely no attention to mainstream media reports on polling, from now until the end of time.

(See this column at American Thinker and LifeSiteNews.)

Copyright 2020, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.
www.trevorgrantthomas.com
Trevor is the author of the The Miracle and Magnificence of America
tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com