The Flood

The recent torrential rains that have fallen on Georgia sparked my interest in other significant floods in American and world history. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), “Floods are the result of a multitude of naturally occurring and human-induced factors, but they all can be defined as the accumulation of too much water in too little time in a specific area. Types of floods include regional floods, flash floods, ice-jam floods, storm-surge floods, dam- and levee-failure floods, and debris, landslide, and mudflow floods.”

Going back to 1889, the U.S. has seen over 30 significant flood events which resulted in thousands of deaths and many billions of dollars in property damage. Also according to the USGS, during the 20th century, floods were the number-one natural disaster in the United States in terms of the number of lives lost and property damage.

Excluding hurricanes, 1889 saw the worst flood in U.S. history. The Johnstown Flood saw over 2200 deaths. It was the largest loss of U.S. civilian lives at that time. The flood was a result of a storm that formed overNebraska and Kansas on May 28, 1889.  The storm strengthened as it moved east towards the Johnstown (Pennsylvania) area. Six to ten inches of rain fell in 24 hours in the Johnstown-South Fork region.

As a result of the downpours, the South Fork Dam, located about 14 miles upstream from Johnstown, burst, sending 20 million tons of water (about 5 billion gallons) hurdling toward Johnstown and other smaller towns. As the wall of water tore downstream, huge masses of debris accumulated in the water.

Nearly an hour after the collapse of the South Fork Dam, the flood hit Johnstown. Moving at nearly 40 miles per hour, the wall of water and debris was 60 feet high. A witness upstream on high ground noted that the water was nearly obscured by the debris and resembled “a huge hill rolling over and over.” (Smaller towns hit upstream were struck with such force that afterward only bare rock remained.)

The most significant flood events are usually the result of hurricanes. According to Time magazine the top 15 most costly weather events in U.S. history were all hurricanes and floods. Of course, hurricane Katrina tops the list with a price tag of $85.5 billion.

I say all of this to note that every flood, tsunami, or any other natural disaster the world over, pales in comparison to the world-wide flood recorded in the book of Genesis. The account of Noah and his Ark is one of the best known events described in the Bible. As devastating, disruptive, and destructive as the natural disasters mentioned above were, imagine the massive ruin that a world-wide flood would bring.

In spite of our familiarity with the Flood event, the reality of it is almost incomprehensible. Much of the artwork depicting the Flood treats it in a rather trite and childish way. The reality is that after Creation week, it is the greatest physical event the world has ever known.

The Flood brought, among other things, earthquakes, volcanoes, and geysers of molten lava. It carved out canyons and river beds. It pushed up mountain ranges and separated continents, and most likely ushered in an ice age. The Flood physically changed the world in ways we can barely imagine.

Also, notably, the global Flood as described in Genesis is a significant event when it comes to explaining (from a biblical perspective) much of what is held up today as evidence for Darwinian evolution. Most of the fossil record, layers in the earth, canyons, mountain ranges, etc. can be explained by the Flood. Of course, evolutionists will scoff at this, but when we see with our own eyes what devastation a local flood can bring, it should be less difficult to understand the possible results of a global flood.

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas

At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.

Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World

tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

Resetting Georgia's Budget Cycle

In these tough economic times, much has been reported on the difficulties that local, state, and federal governments have had setting their budgets. Even with layoffs, furloughs, pay-cuts, tax increases, and so on, politicians at all levels are still facing some very difficult budget decisions.

The financial problems for governments show no immediate signs of letting up. This is especially true for U.S. states. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports that, “On July 1 — the start of the fiscal year in most states — an unusually high number of states were still struggling to adopt budgets for fiscal year 2010. Most states have adopted budgets that closed the shortfalls they faced with a combination of federal stimulus dollars, service reductions, revenue increases, and funds from reserves. But these budgets are already falling out of balance as the economy has caused state revenues to decline even more than projected.”

Of course, no state has seen more financial difficulties than the great liberal experiment that is most commonly called California. Given the Golden State’s financial crisis and its current gubernatorial race, some interesting economic ideas are being proposed.

California republican gubernatorial candidate, Tom Campbell, has a particularly interesting budget plan. According to columnist George Will, Campbell “favors resetting the budget cycle so that the state would accumulate one year's revenues to be spent the following year, when precise knowledge would replace wishful thinking about available revenues.”

Campbell is no economic novice. He has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago, where Milton Friedman was his faculty advisor. Campbell has served as a California State Senator, has been elected to the U.S. Congress five times, and has served as Director of Finance for the State of California.

According to Campbell’s Web site, under current law, California’s legislature and governor set a budget based on what they expect revenue to be. Instead, Campbell notes, “they should set the budget on the lower of: 1) what they expect revenue to be, or 2) what the revenue actually was in the previous fiscal year. When revenue is growing, the extra amount will earn interest. When revenue is falling, the legislature will have one year’s lead time; they can spread the necessary cuts over two years. It will take some years to phase in this proposal. To be conservative, let’s give it 10 years. After 10 years, we will collect money in the current year, put it in an interest bearing account, and not spend it until the next year. What’s in that account is what we have to spend.”

Like many other states, Georgia’s constitution requires that it operate under a balanced budget. Also, like virtually every other state (according to my research), to determine the size of its budget, Georgia must make a revenue estimate. According to the Legislative Budget Office, “The Governor, who is the Budget Director, is responsible for making the official revenue estimate. He is assisted in this responsibility by a state economist under contract as a consultant with the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget, which manages the budget for the Governor. The basis for making revenue projections is a computerized econometrics model. From this model, a range of estimates is provided to the Governor by this economic consultant.”

Georgia is currently among at least 15 states which already have new shortfalls in their 2010 budgets. Trying to nail down accurate budget numbers is, to say the least, an inexact science. Why not remove the guesswork and let the previous year’s revenue fund the following year’s budget?

After all, isn’t this how it works with virtually every family, church, and business that operates with a budget? The previous month’s (or week’s) earnings pay for the next month’s expenses. Is it so far fetched to think that our government would budget as do most other institutions?

As U.S. Senate candidate, Rand Paul, (Congressman Ron Paul’s son) puts it, “People think that there is a different logic for an economy than there is for an individual.” In other words, what doesn’t make sense in a family or business budget should not make sense for the government.

Georgia will elect a new governor next year. Almost certainly the economic plan for each candidate will be the foremost issue throughout the campaign. I would like to see at least one of the candidates have the forward vision of Dr. Campbell and put the state of Georgia on an economic path that brings us into to an era of more financial accountability and less uncertainty.

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas

At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.

Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World

tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

The "New Religion of the First World Elites"

Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming (AGW) skeptics have an unusual ally from the land Down Under. Recently, by a vote of 42 to 30, the Australian Senate rejected their version of cap-and-trade.

In a speech opposing the bill, Senator Nick Minchin stated, “this whole extraordinary scheme, which would do so much damage to Australia, is based on the as yet unproven assertion that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂are the main driver of global warming.... The Rudd government arrogantly refuses to acknowledge that there remains a very lively scientific debate about the extent of and the main causes of climate change, with thousands of highly reputable scientists around the world of the view that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ are not and cannot be the main driver of the small degree of global warming that occurred in the last 30 years of the 20th century.”

Leading Australia’s march away from AGW is its most eminent geologist Ian Plimer. Plimer is a Professor in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences (University of Adelaide) and Emeritus Professor in the School ofEarth Sciences (University of Melbourne). He has authored six books and 60 papers and has twice (1995 and 2002) won Australia’s Eureka Prize, science prizes awarded in the fields of scientific research & innovation, science leadership, science communication & journalism and school science.

His latest book, Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science, is the product of 40 years’ research containing over 2,300 footnotes. It sheds light on many of the false claims of man-made global warming. As Robert Tracinski and Tom Minchin recently noted, “The influence of Plimer's book is particularly interesting because it is not a light introduction to the topic. It is a thick book, chock full of science…If the book is comprehensive in its scope, that is because everything science has discovered about ‘history, archaeology, geology, astronomy, ocean sciences, atmospheric sciences, and the life sciences’—Plimer's list—refutes the global warming dogma.”

Interestingly, Plimer is also an ardent atheist and evolutionist. In other words, he is normally a darling of the political left. Australia’s 1995 Humanist of the Year, Plimer has been arrested and taken to court for disrupting meetings by creationists. One of his books is Telling Lies for God: Reason vs. Creationism.

As vehemently as Plimer has gone after Christians, especially those who take a literal view of the Bible, he has gone after the AGW crowd. He calls global warming “the new religion of First World urban elites,” adding that “Environmentalism has many of the hallmarks of failed European socialism and Western (failed) Christianity. It has a holy book which few have read (IPCC reports), has prophets (Gore) who cannot be challenged, relies on dogma, ignores contrary evidence, has armies of wide-eyed missionaries...; imposes guilt, has a catastrophist view of the planet, and seeks indulgences.”

Now, of course, I could not disagree with him more when it comes to Christianity, the Bible, and Creation. I also find it highly ironic that, even though Plimer possesses a worldview that in almost every way agrees with those who have turned their eyes toward “Mother Earth”—worshipping and serving “created things rather than the Creator,”—he remains an “unbeliever.”

After all, evolutionary philosophy teaches that, since all life sprang from the same single celled source, all living things are “related.” Darwinian evolutionists see humans as a product of nature and natural processes. Therefore, to see humans on equal footing with all other life and owing our very existence to the earth are very logical conclusions for such a philosophy.

This view of the “Church of Environmentalism” is summed up by the monk, Phra Paisal Visalo, who, in the Bangkok Post recently stated that, “Humans fail to realize that they're part of nature. They can survive and maintain their race throughout the passage of time, simply because of nature's mercy and hospitality. Humans should be grateful to nature.”

There you have it. Leave it to an atheist such as Plimer to recognize a religion when he sees one.

This would all be just interesting and sad if we weren’t staring at climate legislation that threatens to cripple our economy further and is based on such nonsense. However, there is still hope that, just as happened in Australia, the Senate here can stop the legislation. After all, if an atheist can help reveal the light of the truth Down Under, anything is possible.

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas

At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.

Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World

tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

Feds Should Heed the Lessons of GM and Chrysler

Forget Obamacare. Forget stimulus plans, government bailouts, cap-and-tax, or any other recent or imminent spending legislation. The current level of government involvement in pensions (Social Security) and healthcare (Medicare/Medicaid) alone could soon bankrupt this country. General Motors and Chrysler provide the lesson here.

General Motors’ and Chrysler’s obligation to nearly 700,000 retired employees’ healthcare and pension funds was the most significant contributing factor to their bankruptcy earlier this year. Do you think this conclusion is far reaching? Roger Lowenstein, columnist for Bloomberg News and author of the 2008 book While America Aged, doesn’t think so (see column here)—at least when it comes to GM.

The thesis of Lowenstein’s book was that “many decades of inflated pension and health-care benefits forced the company to redirect its free cash flow to retired workers. As a result, there was little or nothing left for the shareholders.”

Lowenstein notes that, “In 2003, GM sold $13.5 billion in bonds—one of the biggest debt offerings ever—and plowed the money into its pension fund. Then in 2007, after the UAW went on strike, GM agreed to funnel more than $30 billion into a special trust for retiree health care.”

He concludes, “It was as if the company had secretly been sold and now belonged to the retired workers and their dependents.” Of course, with the Obama administration’s takeover of Chrysler and GM, Lowenstein’s “as if” proved all too literal. With the companies restructuring, the UAW now owns 17.5% of GM and 55% of Chrysler.

With its current level of indebtedness (and the prospect of even more), the dilemma that faces the U.S. government is very similar to what broke Chrysler and GM. The former GM was roughly a microcosm of the U.S.government: large, powerful, wealthy, leader of its industry, and so on. For 77 consecutive years, from 1931 to 2007, GM led the world in sales of automobiles. This streak, of course, is by far longer than any other automaker in history. If there ever was a company that was “too big to fail,” it was GM.

The twentieth century saw the U.S. flex its industrial, technological, military, and economic might to the extent that, with the fall of the Soviet Union, America now stands as the world’s lone military and economic super-power. With only 4.5% of the world’s population, the U.S. represents 23.6% of world gross domestic product.

However, like GM and Chrysler, but to an even greater extent, the U.S. is staring at an economic reckoning unlike anything the world has ever known. Before its bankruptcy, GM lost money on every car it made. Currently, the U.S. spends $2 for every $1 it takes in. GM’s losses weren’t nearly this drastic.

Also, according to the 2009 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report, the combined unfunded liability of these two programs has reached nearly $107 trillion in today's dollars. Medicare and Social Security trust funds will be exhausted in 2017 and 2037, respectively.

Is the United States “too big to fail”? Some think so. Certainly most of the world shares an interest in not seeing economic ruin come to the U.S. However, unlike G.M. and Chrysler, there will be no bailout for the U.S. No one could afford it.

As with the U.S., the automakers were warned before disaster struck. For example, an Institutional Risk Analytics column from 2005 concluded that, “Even [if] GM and Ford [were] to suddenly produce products that were superior to those of the various foreign competitors, and at a lower price, the accumulated retirement and health care liabilities to current and retired workers would still threaten their solvency.”

Moody’s has warned the U.S. that if it doesn’t clean up its act, America stands to lose her Triple-A credit rating (first issued in 1917). In other words, the U.S. would be downgraded like a bad company.

America literally cannot afford its current level of federal spending, and it especially cannot afford the spending increases the Obama administration seeks. Unlike the automakers, congress and the president must heed the many warning bells being sounded by the experts and by everyday common-sense citizens all over the country. From Moody’s to the TEA parties to the town halls, Americans are saying ENOUGH! Stop this spending madness!

Will congress and the president listen? Time will tell, but time is running out.

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas

At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.

Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World

tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

Who's Laughing Now?

On Rush Limbaugh's radio program yesterday he took issue with Democrats such as Nancy Peolsi, comparing those showing up at town hall meetings and opposing Obamacare with Nazi's. On Pelosi, Rush said, "Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House. She is very powerful, one of the most powerful people in the country. This is what I mean by unraveling. She's running around now claiming that we're Nazis, that not only are we an unruly mob but that people are showing up wearing swastikas..." 

Rush continued, "They accuse us of being Nazis and Obama's got a health care logo that's right out of Adolf Hitler's playbook. Now what are the similarities between the Democrat Party of today and the Nazi party in Germany? Well, the Nazis were against big business. They hated big business and, of course, we all know that they were opposed to Jewish capitalism. They were insanely, irrationally against pollution. They were for two years mandatory voluntary service to Germany. They had a whole bunch of make-work projects to keep people working one of which was the Autobahn." 

Following Rush's program, later in the day, Chris Matthews on Hardball took issue with Rush. Watch below: 

Now a simple Google search on "smoking ban" gives a link to, of course, a Wikipedia article, which states the following: "The first modern, nationwide tobacco ban was imposed by the Nazi Party in every German university, post office, military hospital, and Nazi Party office, under the auspices of Karl Astel's Institute for Tobacco Hazards Research, created in 1941 under orders from Adolf Hitler. Major anti-tobacco campaigns were widely broadcast by the Nazis until the demise of the regime in 1945." 

So, the question is who's laughing now? I mean we're talking "Google" and "Wikipedia" here. Matthews, Shrum, and/or their staffs either need to study up on their history, or at least spend more time online. 

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas

At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.

Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World

tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com