Hurricane Ian and the Shortcomings of Weather (and Climate) Forecasting

In the days prior to hurricane Ian’s devastating landfall, millions of Americans were anxiously pouring over Ian’s forecasted “cone” and “spaghetti” models. These models, and the accompanying forecasts, played a huge role in policies that were meant to protect lives and property.

As Ian crept towards Florida, millions were evacuated, homes and businesses were boarded up, and scheduled events were cancelled, moved, or postponed. Tragically, for parts of Florida fears of what Ian would bring indeed proved true. However, in the area where I live—northeast Georgia—Ian-based precautions proved ill-advised.

Northeast Georgia is hundreds of miles from any U.S. coast, yet as early as the Monday (9/26) prior to Ian’s Florida landfall, schools across our area, and throughout Georgia, begin to change their schedules due to the possible impact of hurricane Ian. This was especially the case with Friday-night football. As reported by our local media, 17 out of the 20 games involving Northeast Georgia high school football teams moved from Friday evening to Thursday evening. This move also impacted numerous JV and middle school games, which are typically played on Thursdays.

Such a move might seem like a small thing, but, along with the players, cheer leaders, band members, and school officials involved, countless schedules—work, and the like—of parents and fans were also impacted. As we got to Thursday, it seemed clear that Ian’s impact in our area would be minimal. As Friday arrived, Ian’s impact was less than minimal. There was no rain, and only a slight breeze. Late Friday night—after midnight—a few showers grazed extreme northeast Georgia, and that was it.

Rescheduled football games were not the only Ian-based decisions made by Georgia school officials. Several central Georgia systems cancelled classes on Friday, or switched to the dreaded “virtual learning” schedule. Again, Ian’s impact in these areas was also minimal to nothing.

I say this not to lambast school administrators who made these decisions. Central and northern Georgia have, in the not-too-distant past, have seen significant damage due to the remnants of a hurricane or tropical storm. However, the missed forecasts of a weather event that was only days away should give us great pause when it comes to climate forecasts that speak of events that are typically decades or even centuries away.

We see failed weather forecasts constantly, as I’ve noted before, more than once. Yet millions throughout the world—with religious dedication—continue to buy the left’s doom-and-gloom forecasts when it comes to the global climate. Again, the lesson is this: if weather forecasters often get events wrong that are only days away, there’s no way we should put any faith in climate forecasts that are years away.

(See this post at American Thinker.)

Copyright 2022, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith and Reason.
www.TrevorGrantThomas.com 
Trevor is the author of The Miracle and Magnificence of America
trevorgrantthomas@gmail.com

 

Another Weather Event Proves the Folly of Global Climate Forecasting

It’s been almost exactly a decade, so I suppose it’s time that I again use a local weather event to point out how foolish it is to put any stock in global climate forecasts.

It was particularly warm in Northeast Georgia this past week —no doubt thrilling the earth-worshipping faithful. We’ve also been very wet. After the latest round of rain, temperatures returned to a more winter-like feel. On this past Friday, there were a few murmurings of small amounts of snow on Saturday morning. Of course, any amount of snow in Georgia is news, but as late as Friday evening (scroll to the bottom of the page for the video of the Friday evening/Saturday morning forecast), most forecasts were making little of the potential snowy event.

According to the Friday forecasts, most of North Georgia was only going to get one-half inch to one inch of snow, and temperatures were going to warm into the mid-to-upper forties by Saturday afternoon. Thus, any snow that fell was supposed to melt quickly. We were paying special attention to these forecasts because we were traveling several miles for a karate tournament on Saturday morning.

Even on Saturday morning, forecasters were still saying the snow was going to be minimal and not much of a concern. We left our Northeast Georgia house headed southwest about 9:30 a.m. Saturday morning. The snow was just starting to fall. The storm was moving southwest to northeast, so we were heading right into it. As we traveled, the snowfall was getting heavier. The precipitation on radar looked impressive. We were barely thirty minutes down the road, and we started getting nervous.

The snow was quickly piling up and the traffic was slowing down. It was as if we were headed to a global warming conference and Al Gore’s plane had just landed! As we continued on our way we saw several cars on the sides of the road, unable to navigate the snow-covered asphalt. What’s more, as we communicated with friends already at the tournament, we were getting reports of road closures.

We arrived safely at the tournament, but the parking lot was perhaps the most dangerous asphalt that we encountered. We were beginning to wonder if we were going to end up sleeping on the floor of a high school gym.

After the tournament we made it home safely, but it was a mess! Contrary to the forecasts that were only hours old, much of North Georgia saw five to six inches of snow, and the temperatures never rose past the mid-thirties. Roads all across the area were closed.

Again, I don’t mind an inaccurate forecast. I’m very used to them, especially in the winter in the southeastern United States. I’m sure it happens all over the U.S. and the world every day. Even with all of our advanced technology, weather forecasting is a very tricky business.

However, the missed forecast with this recent weather event highlights the kind of folly that is behind all of the doom and gloom predictions coming from Al Gore’s disciples. Even people who know what they are talking about have a difficult time predicting accurately the local weather just days, and sometimes even hours, in advance—yet the climate-change “faithful” (“fools” is more appropriate) would have us drastically change our energy policy and enact crippling emission controls—which would do virtually nothing to change the climate—based on their dire predictions about the global climate that are decades and sometimes centuries in advance.

To be accurate in weather—or climate—forecasting, it helps when one’s forecasts are based on sound science. Yet, as John Nolte noted just a few months ago, climate “experts” are zero for forty-one (now 0 for 43!) in their doomsday predictions. Thus, why would anyone think that so-called climate “science” is in any way reliable? These climate frauds have long relied on the deceptive use of data to push their big government agenda. Daily it seems we are subjected to “another global warming fraud.” Everybody needs an Apocalypse, I suppose.

Climate science has become such a joke that the “faithful” are now being led by a child. As Josef Joffe recently put it,

Greta Thunberg, the teenager from Stockholm, is the prophet of a new religion sweeping the West. Call it Climatism. Like any religion worthy of the name, it comes with its own catechism (what to believe) and eschatology (how the world will end). Thunberg’s bible is the latest report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which gives us 12 years to save civilization as we know it.

We have prayed to the false gods of fossil-fired growth, runs Thunberg’s indictment. Guilty are the adults who have “lied to us” and given us “false hope.” But her children’s crusade—no-school “Fridays for Future”—will show the path to redemption.

Climate science has become such a joke that the “faithful” are now “confessing their sins” to plants. As Tyler O’Neil noted last year,

Union Theological Seminary hosted a chapel service in which self-identified Christians confessed their climate sins to plants. No, this is not satire from The Babylon Bee — this really happened, and the seminary is defending it without shame…

“In worship, our community confessed the harm we’ve done to plants, speaking directly in repentance. This is a beautiful ritual,” the seminary announced on Twitter. “We are in the throes of a climate emergency, a crisis created by humanity’s arrogance, our disregard for Creation. Far too often, we see the natural world only as resources to be extracted for our use, not divinely created in their own right—worthy of honor, thanks and care.”

It is becoming increasingly clear that anthropogenic climate change is nothing more than, as Australia’s Ian Plimer put it years ago, “the new religion of First World urban elites.” With the mounting evidence against it, and the continued crumbling of its “holy” documents, it’s developing into a rather poor religion, at that.

Thus, when it comes to the “experts” and predicting the future—especially the future global climate—as Jeff Jacoby noted last winter, your guess is as good as theirs. It seems this is also often the case with your local weather forecasts. Remember all of this the next time you encounter someone telling you what the global climate is going to be decades down the road.

(See this column at American Thinker and at Climate Depot.)

Copyright 2020, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.
www.trevorgrantthomas.com
Trevor is the author of the The Miracle and Magnificence of America
tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

If You're Warming Up Your Car, You Might be Breaking the Law

As we again break records for cold in the southern U.S., while sitting indoors trying to keep warm (and schooling my wife and kids in Trivial Pursuit), I stumbled across this on the AJC.com:

Warm up your car this morning? That could be illegal where you live.

According to the article, 31 states have laws against "idling." Some of these laws are rooted in some measure of common sense--to deter theft and the like--but many are the sad result of governments buying into the myth of man-made global warming. As the author of the AJC piece puts it,

Of course, there's logic behind putting such laws on the books. With scientists around the world regularly warning humanity about the dire and ballooning effects of climate change, cutting down on vehicle emissions is an important, albeit seemingly small, step to address the issue.

Heh: "logic." Actually the earth-worshipping warmists would prefer that you not drive at all. The AJC author continues:

Just last months (sic), a new scientific study revealed that the worst-case predictions regarding climate change are likely the most accurate. The results followed the November publication of an open letter to humanity from more than 15,000 international scientists urging society to address major environmental concerns before it's "too late."

Just "last months"--December 4, 2017 to be precise--an AJC headline read "Snow flurries possible this weekend after cool down." The piece included the following graphic:

December 4, 2017 was a Monday. The winter weather moved in Friday, December 8, during the afternoon. This was the final result:

So what just days earlier was predicted to be from "flurries" with "no accumulation" up to only a couple of inches of snow, turned into one of the largest snowfalls ever seen in Georgia. Several areas got more than 10 inches, including areas very near Atlanta. As it was a wet, heavy snow, hundreds of thousands lost power. It was perhaps the largest ever fall snowfall in Georgia's recorded history--certainly the case in my lifetime (48+ years). And only days earlier the forecast for this "weather event" was woefully inaccurate. 

The inaccuracy in the weather forecast is not what's troubling here. It happens all of the time. In other words, it is a difficult science to predict the weather only days in advance, yet we're supposed to believe climate forecasts that are a century out. As the study from the "15,000 international scientists" puts it, 

Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4°C by the end of this century.

Sadly, this type of forecast is typical as well. How many times has the man-made global movement predicted such? It's as if every six months or so they feel that the world must be reminded of how bad it's going to get unless we put them in charge. And remember when President Trump tweeted concerning the brutal cold along the eastern U.S. just after Christmas?

Of course, the warmists were totally triggered. Many of them took to reminding us of the difference between climate and weather, specifically how much more complicated is climate than "mere" weather. Given such, these earth-worshippers should be reminded: if a "simple" 5-day weather forecast is often wrong, then a 100-year climate forecast is almost certainly wrong.

Copyright 2018, Trevor Grant Thomas

At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.

www.trevorgrantthomas.com

Trevor is the author of the The Miracle and Magnificence of America

tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

Predicting the Global Weather

Recently, a strong winter storm struck the U.S. Midwest and South. It was one of the strongest winter storms in recent memory to strike the American South. Parts of Tennessee and North Carolina saw nearly a foot of snow. Here in Northeast Georgia, winter storm watches and warnings were issued. Forecasters predicted several inches of snow and a significant amount of ice. However, the predictions fell far short of what actually occurred.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning for Friday evening (1/29/2010) and well into Saturday. “Freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected to hit North Georgia tonight and continue into Saturday. A line north from Ellijay to Helen could see seven to nine inches of snow. Ice accumulations there could reach three-quarters of an inch,” was the forecast as late as 11 p.m. Friday evening.

By Saturday evening, there was very little snow on the ground in the whole state of Georgia. In North Hall County where I live (within the warning area), there was no snow and hardly any ice. Even the temperature forecast I saw Saturday morning for the rest of the day was very inaccurate. According to the weather report, the temperatures were supposed to be well below freezing by sundown. As of 10 p.m., according to the Weather Channel’s website, our temperature was 34 degrees.

Now, I don’t mind an inaccurate forecast. I’m very used to them, especially in the winter in this area. I’m sure it happens all over the U.S. and the world everyday. Even with all of our advanced technology, weather forecasting is a very tricky business.

However, the missed forecast with this recent weather event highlights the kind of folly that is behind all of the doom and gloom predictions coming from Al Gore’s disciples. Even people who know what they are talking about have a difficult time predicting accurately the local weather just days, and sometimes even hours, in advance—yet the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) community would have us drastically change our energy policy and enact crippling emission controls based on their dire predictions about the global climate that are decades and sometimes centuries in advance.

To be accurate in weather forecasting, it helps when one’s forecasts are based on sound science. Recent events are shining more light into the shady “science” that is behind AGW and its ominous future climate predictions. Building on the Climategate scandal, it turns out that the world has been mislead about multiple matters concerning the future global climate.

In 2007 the U.N.’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which supposedly incorporated the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming. (This is the report which led to the IPCC winning the Nobel Peace Prize, shared with Al Gore.) One of the central claims of the report was that the world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could disappear by 2035.

It has been revealed in the last couple of weeks that this conclusion was based on a short telephone interview given by a little known Indian scientist, Syed Hasnain, 8 years prior to the IPCC report. Hasnain recently stated that his comments in the interview were nothing more than mere speculation, unsupported by any research. Also, the IPCC’s climate chief, Rajendra Pachauri, was made aware of the faulty glacier information prior to the Copenhagen conference, yet said nothing while the world had gathered to discuss radical change in global energy policy. (The push for such change was and is greatly rooted in the IPCC’s report.)

Pachauri has since admitted that the report may also contain other glaring errors. According to Fox News, “In AR4 scientists wrote that 40 percent of the Amazon rainforest in South America was endangered by global warming. But that assertion was discredited this week when it emerged that the findings were based on numbers from a study by the World Wildlife Federation that had nothing to do with the issue of global warming—and that was written by a freelance journalist and green activist.”

Given all of this, it’s no wonder that the ongoing Public Priorities poll by Pew had the issue of global warming ranked dead last, even coming in two points lower than last year. The January 25 poll had global warming 21st out of 21, just below trade policy and lobbyists, in its list of policy priority issues as ranked by the U.S. public. (At the top of the poll were the economy, jobs, terrorism, and social security.)

It is becoming increasingly clear that AGW is nothing more than, as Australia’s Ian Plimer put it, “the new religion of First World urban elites.” With the mounting evidence against it, and the continued crumbling of its “holy” documents, it’s developing into a rather poor religion, at that.

Copyright 2010, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason
Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World
tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com