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Friday, September 25, 2009

The Flood

The recent torrential rains that have fallen on Georgia sparked my interest in other significant floods in American and world history. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), “Floods are the result of a multitude of naturally occurring and human-induced factors, but they all can be defined as the accumulation of too much water in too little time in a specific area. Types of floods include regional floods, flash floods, ice-jam floods, storm-surge floods, dam- and levee-failure floods, and debris, landslide, and mudflow floods.”

Going back to 1889, the U.S. has seen over 30 significant flood events which resulted in thousands of deaths and many billions of dollars in property damage. Also according to the USGS, during the 20th century, floods were the number-one natural disaster in the United States in terms of the number of lives lost and property damage.

Excluding hurricanes, 1889 saw the worst flood in U.S. history. The Johnstown Flood saw over 2200 deaths. It was the largest loss of U.S. civilian lives at that time. The flood was a result of a storm that formed overNebraska and Kansas on May 28, 1889.  The storm strengthened as it moved east towards the Johnstown (Pennsylvania) area. Six to ten inches of rain fell in 24 hours in the Johnstown-South Fork region.

As a result of the downpours, the South Fork Dam, located about 14 miles upstream from Johnstown, burst, sending 20 million tons of water (about 5 billion gallons) hurdling toward Johnstown and other smaller towns. As the wall of water tore downstream, huge masses of debris accumulated in the water.

Nearly an hour after the collapse of the South Fork Dam, the flood hit Johnstown. Moving at nearly 40 miles per hour, the wall of water and debris was 60 feet high. A witness upstream on high ground noted that the water was nearly obscured by the debris and resembled “a huge hill rolling over and over.” (Smaller towns hit upstream were struck with such force that afterward only bare rock remained.)

The most significant flood events are usually the result of hurricanes. According to Time magazine the top 15 most costly weather events in U.S. history were all hurricanes and floods. Of course, hurricane Katrina tops the list with a price tag of $85.5 billion.

I say all of this to note that every flood, tsunami, or any other natural disaster the world over, pales in comparison to the world-wide flood recorded in the book of Genesis. The account of Noah and his Ark is one of the best known events described in the Bible. As devastating, disruptive, and destructive as the natural disasters mentioned above were, imagine the massive ruin that a world-wide flood would bring.

In spite of our familiarity with the Flood event, the reality of it is almost incomprehensible. Much of the artwork depicting the Flood treats it in a rather trite and childish way. The reality is that after Creation week, it is the greatest physical event the world has ever known.

The Flood brought, among other things, earthquakes, volcanoes, and geysers of molten lava. It carved out canyons and river beds. It pushed up mountain ranges and separated continents, and most likely ushered in an ice age. The Flood physically changed the world in ways we can barely imagine.

Also, notably, the global Flood as described in Genesis is a significant event when it comes to explaining (from a biblical perspective) much of what is held up today as evidence for Darwinian evolution. Most of the fossil record, layers in the earth, canyons, mountain ranges, etc. can be explained by the Flood. Of course, evolutionists will scoff at this, but when we see with our own eyes what devastation a local flood can bring, it should be less difficult to understand the possible results of a global flood.

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.
Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World
tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Resetting Georgia's Budget Cycle

In these tough economic times, much has been reported on the difficulties that local, state, and federal governments have had setting their budgets. Even with layoffs, furloughs, pay-cuts, tax increases, and so on, politicians at all levels are still facing some very difficult budget decisions.

The financial problems for governments show no immediate signs of letting up. This is especially true for U.S. states. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports that, “On July 1 — the start of the fiscal year in most states — an unusually high number of states were still struggling to adopt budgets for fiscal year 2010. Most states have adopted budgets that closed the shortfalls they faced with a combination of federal stimulus dollars, service reductions, revenue increases, and funds from reserves. But these budgets are already falling out of balance as the economy has caused state revenues to decline even more than projected.”

Of course, no state has seen more financial difficulties than the great liberal experiment that is most commonly called California. Given the Golden State’s financial crisis and its current gubernatorial race, some interesting economic ideas are being proposed.

California republican gubernatorial candidate, Tom Campbell, has a particularly interesting budget plan. According to columnist George Will, Campbell “favors resetting the budget cycle so that the state would accumulate one year's revenues to be spent the following year, when precise knowledge would replace wishful thinking about available revenues.”

Campbell is no economic novice. He has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago, where Milton Friedman was his faculty advisor. Campbell has served as a California State Senator, has been elected to the U.S. Congress five times, and has served as Director of Finance for the State of California.

According to Campbell’s Web site, under current law, California’s legislature and governor set a budget based on what they expect revenue to be. Instead, Campbell notes, “they should set the budget on the lower of: 1) what they expect revenue to be, or 2) what the revenue actually was in the previous fiscal year. When revenue is growing, the extra amount will earn interest. When revenue is falling, the legislature will have one year’s lead time; they can spread the necessary cuts over two years. It will take some years to phase in this proposal. To be conservative, let’s give it 10 years. After 10 years, we will collect money in the current year, put it in an interest bearing account, and not spend it until the next year. What’s in that account is what we have to spend.

Like many other states, Georgia’s constitution requires that it operate under a balanced budget. Also, like virtually every other state (according to my research), to determine the size of its budget, Georgia must make a revenue estimate. According to the Legislative Budget Office, “The Governor, who is the Budget Director, is responsible for making the official revenue estimate. He is assisted in this responsibility by a state economist under contract as a consultant with the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget, which manages the budget for the Governor. The basis for making revenue projections is a computerized econometrics model. From this model, a range of estimates is provided to the Governor by this economic consultant.”

Georgia is currently among at least 15 states which already have new shortfalls in their 2010 budgets. Trying to nail down accurate budget numbers is, to say the least, an inexact science. Why not remove the guesswork and let the previous year’s revenue fund the following year’s budget?

After all, isn’t this how it works with virtually every family, church, and business that operates with a budget? The previous month’s (or week’s) earnings pay for the next month’s expenses. Is it so far fetched to think that our government would budget as do most other institutions?

As U.S. Senate candidate, Rand Paul, (Congressman Ron Paul’s son) puts it, “People think that there is a different logic for an economy than there is for an individual.” In other words, what doesn’t make sense in a family or business budget should not make sense for the government.

Georgia will elect a new governor next year. Almost certainly the economic plan for each candidate will be the foremost issue throughout the campaign. I would like to see at least one of the candidates have the forward vision of Dr. Campbell and put the state of Georgia on an economic path that brings us into to an era of more financial accountability and less uncertainty.

Copyright 2009, Trevor Grant Thomas
At the Intersection of Politics, Science, Faith, and Reason.
Trevor and his wife Michelle are the authors of: Debt Free Living in a Debt Filled World
tthomas@trevorgrantthomas.com